Producer Deliveries, Exports & Commercial Stocks

CANOLA INTEL | Prairie Farmer Market Intelligence
LIVE
ICE Canola Mar26 $590.60 ▼ 0.67% CAD/MT
◆
CBOT Soybeans Mar26 $10.21 ▼ 0.88% USD/bu
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CBOT Soybean Oil $0.41 ▼ 1.2% USD/lb
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BMD Palm Oil Feb26 MYR 4,012 ▼ 0.95% MYR/MT
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Indonesia CPO Ref $915.64 ▼ 1.1% USD/MT
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ICE Canola Mar26 $590.60 ▼ 0.67% CAD/MT
◆
CBOT Soybeans Mar26 $10.21 ▼ 0.88% USD/bu
◆
CBOT Soybean Oil $0.41 ▼ 1.2% USD/lb
◆
BMD Palm Oil Feb26 MYR 4,012 ▼ 0.95% MYR/MT
◆
Indonesia CPO Ref $915.64 ▼ 1.1% USD/MT

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Real-time supply and demand data. See what the market sees. Make informed decisions about your canola.

Week 21 Deliveries
183.1 KT
↓ 42% vs W20 (313.8)
Deliveries YTD
7.51 MMT
↓ 11.8% vs LY
Week 21 Crush
261.9 KT
↑ 64% vs W20 (160.1)
Crush YTD
4.93 MMT
↑ 1.3% vs LY
Week 21 Exports
121.0 KT
YTD ↓41% vs LY

Canadian Canola Commercial Stocks

Week 21 (ending Dec 28, 2025) vs Week 20 — Source: Grains Canada

Total Commercial Stocks
1,166.0 KT
Week 20: 1,301.1 KT
↓ 135.1 KT (-10.4%)
Primary Elevators
536.7 KT
Country elevators
Process Elevators
179.4 KT
At crush plants
Terminal Stocks
449.9 KT
Export position (VAN/PR/TB/SL)

Terminal Stock Breakdown:

Vancouver: 215.0 KT Prince Rupert: 65.0 KT Thunder Bay: 97.7 KT Bay & Lakes: 65.6 KT St. Lawrence: 6.6 KT

Weekly Deliveries vs. Domestic Crush

When the green line exceeds the bars, demand outpaces supply

DATA AS OF
Week 21 • Jan 2026

Commitments of Traders

CFTC Report • ICE Canola Futures
Commercial Hedgers
(Producers, Crushers)
+24,850
Net Short Net Long

Commercials are net long — typically bullish signal as producers/crushers hedge expected higher prices

Managed Money
(Hedge Funds, CTAs)
-18,420
Net Short Net Long

Speculators are net short — contrarian opportunity? Funds often wrong at extremes

Other Reportables
(Swap Dealers, etc.)
-6,430
Net Short Net Long

Swap dealers slightly short — neutral positioning

COT Net Positions — 12 Week Trend

Commercial vs. Managed Money positioning

Canadian Crush Capacity

13 MMT today → 15 MMT by end 2026
Richardson
Yorkton, SK
2.5 MMT/yr
World's Largest
Louis Dreyfus
Yorkton, SK
2.0+ MMT/yr
Doubling capacity
Cargill
Regina, SK
1.0 MMT/yr
Opening soon
Bunge
Altona, MB
1.1 MMT/yr
Cargill
Clavet, SK
850 KT/yr
Cargill
Camrose, AB
800 KT/yr
ADM
Lloydminster, SK
700 KT/yr
Richardson
Lethbridge, AB
700 KT/yr
Bunge
Nipawin, SK
550 KT/yr
Viterra
Regina, SK
2.5 MMT/yr
Awaiting merger
FCL / AGT
Regina, SK
1.1 MMT/yr
Linked to RD plant

Biofuel Demand for Canola

U.S., Canada & EU consumption
6.0
MMT consumed in 2024
5.0
MMT expected in 2025
↓ 17%
YoY change (US down, EU up)
3x
Growth since 2022 (2 MMT)

Biofuel demand is the primary driver of crush capacity expansion. Imperial Renewables (AB) now online consuming significant volumes.

Prediction Markets

What the crowd thinks about events that could affect canola

View on Polymarket →
Bank of Canada decision in January?
No change 99¢
-25 bps 1¢
$68.9K Volume • $49.5K Liquidity
Resolves: Jan 28, 2026
View on Polymarket →
Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?
Yes 66¢
No 34¢
$20.4K Volume • $6.0K Liquidity
Resolves: June 30, 2026
View on Polymarket →
2026 Winter Olympics: Ice Hockey Gold Medal Winner
🇨🇦 Canada 45¢
🇺🇸 USA 22¢
🇸🇪 Sweden 14¢
🇫🇮 Finland 11¢
$48.3K Volume • $214K Liquidity
Milano Cortina • Feb 6-22, 2026

Polymarket prices reflect crowd-sourced probability estimates. Not financial advice. polymarket.com

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